Tonight's MLB, NFL and UFC bets, posted before the game.
A short card each night: the bet, the best price and where to find it, and why. Every card is graded in public afterwards, wins and losses.
Not on sale yet. Planned price $19.99 a month. The record and the postseason odds are free now.
Or open the full record, every pick →For subscribers
- Tonight's card, before the game
- Matchups, odds and props
Proven: every pick is published before the game and never edited. Not proven: that the picks make money.
What is free, and what is for subscribers.
- The full graded record. Every past MLB, NFL and UFC card, night by night, wins and losses, with a check that the ledger has not been edited. Open the record
- MLB postseason odds. The chances of each series and each club's chance to win the World Series, as model estimates. Open the odds
- Tonight's card, before the game. The day's bets with their prices, written to the public ledger before the game. NFL and UFC cards sit on their own pages.
- Matchups. Every game on the slate, in depth.
- Odds. Each tracked book's price for a game, side by side.
- Props. Player props priced for the night, ordered by how likely each one is.
- Tennis board. A match board for research. It makes no picks.
After the game, tonight's card joins the free record.
What is proven and what is not.
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ProvenEvery pick is published before the game: the pick, how likely it is by the whole market and by our own numbers, and what the price needs to break even. The ledger is hash-chained, so a pick cannot be added or changed afterwards without breaking the chain.
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ProvenEvery pick is graded exactly as it was published: a win, a loss or a void, said plainly. Nothing is re-graded, re-ranked, removed or edited after the fact.
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Result so farThe record so far has not shown that the picks make money. The current figures are at the top of this page.
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ExperimentalNone of the research ideas we have tested has survived our own checks.
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No track recordThe postseason odds are model estimates with no track record yet.
Losses stay on the record at the same size as the wins. Every graded night sits on one public page you can open yourself, not a highlight reel of the nights we were right.
We pre-registered a long list of separate research ideas, from bullpen workload and platoon matchups to market-structure effects like fading recent price moves, and tested them against past MLB moneyline games. We publish that too, at the same size as everything else.
Last night's card, as published, with what happened
One plan. No tiers to compare.
- Cancel anytime, no retention flow — access runs through what you've paid for
- One monthly plan today, no countdown, no percent-off badge
- Tonight's cards before the game, plus Matchups, Odds, Props and the Tennis research board. The graded record stays free
This is what "losses included" actually looks like.
Take Phillies to win at −165.
The market made the Phillies a 61% bet to win; our own numbers agreed at 56%. At −165 the bet needed 62% to break even — closer than the price looked.
Astros 2, Phillies 1. Loss. −1.00 unit. Graded the next morning, exactly as published — nothing edited after the fact.
This is one of three picks from the first night this record graded, 2026-09-10: 2 wins, 1 loss. Every night since has graded the same way, on the record page, losses included.
Where we're live, and where we're not.
Current method
The full card, every night of the season.
Earlier method (retired)
Counted separately.
Current method
Picks published and graded each week, on the same record.
Earlier method (retired)
Counted separately.
Current method
Picks published on event nights.
Earlier method (retired)
No earlier method yet.
A match board, not picks yet — research-stage, said plainly.
Frequently asked questions.
Why is this called a founding price, and will it go up?
It will move with the record, in both directions. $19.99 is what early members pay while the record is young. As the public, graded record grows, the price for NEW members can rise; if the record turns, it falls. Nothing here says the record will be good, and past results never promise future ones. Two things we commit to: the price is only ever set from the published record, not from a countdown or a sale, and founding members keep $19.99 for as long as their subscription stays active, whatever we charge later.
No guaranteed wins — is that really true?
Yes. Nothing here guarantees an outcome or a profit, for any user or any bet. You are responsible for your own wagering decisions, including whether to bet at all.
Is this gambling advice?
No. We publish our own picks with how likely they are and what the price needs, and we publish how they do. Whether to bet, how much, and where is your decision, and nothing here is a guarantee.
Do you predict who wins?
We say which side is more likely — by the whole market and by our own numbers — before first pitch, and we grade it after. That is not a promised winner: a 64% side loses more than a third of the time, and the record shows it.
If you already know who's more likely, why does the price matter?
Because a likely side at a bad price still loses money. Every pick shows the win rate the price needs to break even next to the likelihood we actually have; if the price needs more than the side is likely to deliver, the pick says so.
No betting edge found yet — what does that mean?
Exactly what it says. In 2026 we pre-registered and tested 37 distinct research hypotheses against real MLB games from 2023–2024, and none survived our falsification tests. We publish the losers, including the one that looked promising until we checked it properly.
Which sports do you cover?
MLB, NFL and UFC all carry live picks, published before the game or event. MLB and NFL grade automatically the next morning; UFC picks grade once results are entered by hand. Tennis is research-stage — a match board, not picks yet.
Can I cancel anytime?
Yes — cancel your renewal anytime, with no retention flow. You keep access through the period you've already paid for.
Why don't you show a win percentage like other apps do?
We do — our own number sits right next to the market's on every pick. It is unvalidated: our own research found zero surviving betting ideas against real games, and every pick is graded in public regardless.
See what it says.